Can company trouble warn you before a sponsor licence disappears?
That is a useful question, but it needs a dated history—not a confident-looking risk score. This is evidence to investigate, not a safety score. We preserve monthly Companies House signals and daily sponsor-register changes, then pair them only when the employer name matches conservatively.
Results are not published yet
The analysis continues privately, but interim counts and intervals are withheld until we have at least 3 monthly snapshots, 60 days of coverage and 20 paired observations. This prevents an immature sample from looking conclusive.
A pair means the signal date came before a later observed removal of the same employer name. It does not prove that the signal caused the removal.
Dormant accounts and company cessation
Held back until the publication threshold is met.
Companies House’s bulk data gives the end of the dormant accounting period—not the date the accounts were submitted. We show that distinction because calling it a filing date would overstate the evidence.
What this cannot tell you
Dormant accounts can be legitimate, a sponsor name may not map cleanly to a company, and sponsor removal can happen for reasons the public register does not state. Treat every signal as a reason to open the official records, never as a verdict on an employer.